Talking and Preparing: the North Calls Putin, Warsaw and London Make Plans

Finland's president and Norway's prime minister spoke directly with Vladimir Putin, and security in the Baltic Sea and Northern Europe was among the topics. The same day in Warsaw, Poland and the United Kingdom signed a three-year defence cooperation plan, and Britain's defence secretary said the alliance must be ready for a scenario of war with Russia. Diplomacy and deterrence are running side by side.

Baltic Security Monitor | Material Update — MODERATE
Snapshot: 27 October 2026, 14:00 (EET)

Monitoring window: 27 October, 08:00 to 14:00, with a 24-hour lookback. Next scheduled snapshot: 27 October, 20:00.

Poland and the UK: a three-year defence cooperation plan (MATERIAL, MODERATE)

On 27 October in Warsaw, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting signed a three-year Defence Cooperation Plan. It covers joint exercises, capability development, continued support for Ukraine and deeper cooperation in defence production. The document implements the Polish-British security and defence treaty concluded in May 2026.

Kosiniak-Kamysz called the UK "a very important partner in arms production" and said the meeting opened with support for Ukraine. Among the existing joint strands, Polish media point to the Miecznik naval programme, the Narew, Pilica and Pilica Plus air defence systems, and a separate 155 mm ammunition line.

At a joint briefing Streeting said: "We must be prepared for a scenario in which the United Kingdom and the NATO alliance find themselves at war with Russia." He stressed that this was "not because we want war" and said NATO stands ready to "defend every inch" of its territory. Putin's assurances that he has no intention of fighting NATO, he added, should be weighed against what Putin said about Ukraine shortly before the 2022 invasion.

What is confirmed. The signing of the plan, its duration and its main areas (Polish media, Reuters, and the Polish Defence Ministry's programme).

What is not established.
- 🟡 Specific projects, timelines and funding under the plan: the full text has not been published.
- No new deployments, deliveries or contracts have been announced as a result of the signing.

BSM analysis: the plan is not a new alliance but a way to implement the May treaty. Its weight lies elsewhere: Britain is anchoring itself in Poland not only as a military ally but as a partner in producing air defence and ammunition. That matters for the Baltic states, because Poland is their land rear and logistics hub. Streeting's words sound blunt, but they repeat the deterrence logic the Baltic states have argued for years: the better prepared the allies are for war, the less likely it is to start.

Finland and Norway speak to Putin (WATCH, moderate)

On 27 October Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held a phone call with Putin at their own initiative. According to Stubb's office, the aim was "to convey messages directly regarding future negotiations to help to end the war." The call was coordinated with Ukraine and concerned the planned meetings in Abu Dhabi. Both leaders stressed that they spoke for their own countries, not for Europe as a whole. Støre's office said they underlined the importance of de-escalation.

According to the Kremlin, Putin repeated his claim about the "root causes" of the war and criticised the "confrontational policies" of EU and NATO states. By the same account, the sides discussed security in the Baltic Sea and Northern Europe and agreed to keep direct contact.

After the call, Stubb and Støre spoke with Zelenskyy. According to him, they told Putin that real de-escalation steps on Ukraine's energy and infrastructure are needed. They also discussed preparations for a team-level trilateral meeting of Ukraine, the US and Russia in November.

What is not established.
- 🟡 What exactly was said about the Baltic Sea: that part is known only from the Kremlin's readout.
- 🟡 The date of the Abu Dhabi meeting and the delegations.
- No agreements or de-escalation steps were announced.

BSM analysis: Finland and Norway share a border with Russia and speak to Moscow as neighbours, not as mediators on behalf of Europe. But in the Kremlin's readout the conversation widens to "security in the Baltic Sea and Northern Europe." That is exactly the frame Moscow, according to reports last week, wants to bring to the talks when it raises NATO's presence in the region. For Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania it therefore matters that Baltic Sea security is not discussed without them, even in calls made by friendly neighbours.

Open lines

• Oleshky. The ceasefire has been in force since 03:00 on 27 October. 🟡 There is still no independent confirmation of compliance, aid deliveries or evacuations. The next humanitarian phase is planned for 29 October.
• Romania. No new information in the Brașov arson case since the announcement on 26 October.
• Black Sea. The ships in the Russian claims have still not been identified.
• Patriot / NASAMS / PURL. No new Pentagon approval recorded.
• Latvia. The Resolute Reforger 2026 exercise continues until 8 November.
• Lithuania. No findings yet on the drone crash or the attempted arson at a warehouse holding Starlink equipment.

Conclusion

The day showed two lines running in parallel. Russia's northern neighbours call Putin to pass on signals before the talks. Poland and the UK sign a plan that turns deterrence into routine work: exercises, air defence, ammunition. One does not contradict the other. But talks about "Northern European security" carry weight only when this kind of preparation stands behind them.

Moscow hears a conversation only as clearly as it sees the readiness behind it.

Sources: Interia — signing of the Defence Cooperation Plan · Gość Niedzielny — Streeting's remarks and plan contents · UNN — Streeting quote · The Moscow Times — Stubb and Støre call with Putin · Government of Norway — official statement · Ukrinform — Zelenskyy's call with Stubb and Støre

Baltic Security Monitor (osint-baltic.com) — an analytical publication on security on NATO's northeastern flank.
MATERIAL / WATCH statuses are set by an automated open-source monitoring system and checked by the editors.