Five refineries in a week, and a package a year in the making

Baltic Security Monitor | Security Watch · 5 November 2026, 14:00 EET

Overnight into 5 November, Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan refinery, one of Russia's three largest. It was the fifth hit on Russian oil refining in seven days, despite reports of an informal "pause" at Washington's request. The same day, Italy was reported to be finalising its first military aid package for Ukraine in almost a year, possibly including missiles for SAMP/T, while the Brussels talks moved to NATO headquarters. No MATERIAL development was recorded on NATO's north-eastern flank in this cycle.

Ryazan: the biggest strike of the week

Ryazan governor Pavel Malkov said more than 200 drones targeted the region. Debris damaged power lines, cutting electricity to parts of the city, fires broke out at industrial sites and one person was injured. Russian media reported a blaze at the Ryazan refinery, and the independent outlet Astra reported a strike on a large Wildberries logistics centre. 🟡 The governor did not name the facilities hit, and neither Rosneft nor Wildberries has commented.

The Ryazan refinery belongs to Rosneft. It processes more than 17 million tonnes of crude a year and supplies petrol, diesel and jet fuel to Moscow and central Russia. According to Kyiv Post, one of its primary crude units was shut down after a strike on 15 October.

Russia's Defence Ministry said it downed 496 Ukrainian drones over 13 regions, Crimea and the Black and Azov Seas. 🟡 These figures have not been independently verified.

The week in sequence

• 30 October — Rosneft's Novokuybyshevsk refinery, Samara region;
• 31 October — Bashneft's Novoil refinery, Ufa;
• 1 November — Lukoil's NORSI refinery, Kstovo;
• 3 November — the Yaroslavl refinery, 124 drones according to the governor (Material Update, 3 November 08:00);
• 5 November — the Ryazan refinery.

BSM analysis

On 29 October the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine had informally paused refinery strikes under US pressure until after the congressional elections. The sequence above suggests that if a pause existed at all, it lasted days. Kyiv publicly denies it, and Zelenskyy has offered Washington a trade: a month without refinery strikes for a month of Patriot deliveries. A strike on Ryazan two days after the elections — more than 200 drones by Russia's own count — reads as a signal: the campaign goes on, and a "pause" is a bargaining chip, not a commitment.

For the Baltic states the campaign has two dimensions. Every large drone wave aimed at Russian targets raises the risk of strays heading into NATO airspace, as Ukrainian aircraft over Latvia have shown. And strikes on refining and logistics bear directly on Russia's ability to supply its forces, including near its western borders. 🟡 Without satellite imagery or operator data, the scale of the damage in Ryazan cannot be assessed.

Italy: a 13th package and a split coalition

Reuters reports that Italy is finalising its 13th military aid package for Ukraine since 2022, and its first of 2026; the previous one was approved almost a year ago. The contents are classified, but sources say it could include Aster interceptors for the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system. Defence Minister Guido Crosetto will brief COPASIR, the parliamentary intelligence and security committee, on 10 November, with approval expected afterwards.

The package comes as the governing coalition divides. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and Crosetto back the aid as part of Italy's EU and NATO commitments. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and his League party oppose further deliveries. The current decree allows arms transfers only until 31 December, and it is unclear whether it will be extended into 2027 — a question that will only sharpen ahead of next year's general election.

BSM analysis

The year-long gap between packages says more than what is in the new one. Italy still backs Ukraine, but each package is harder for its government to deliver, and the legal basis for shipments runs out in eight weeks. The dates line up neatly: Crosetto briefs COPASIR on 10 November, the first day of the Abu Dhabi talks. 🟡 Until the package is approved, the Aster missiles remain a report from sources.

Brussels, day two: talks move to NATO headquarters

On 5 November, talks between Ukraine and the US, Britain, France, Germany, the EU and NATO continued at alliance headquarters, with the World Bank and BlackRock also taking part. Rustem Umerov said the group separately discussed "the threats from Russia to Ukraine and all of Europe" and joint steps to counter them. NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said the participants would meet again to discuss the way towards a just and lasting end to the war. No concrete decisions were announced. Zelenskyy also held a 90-minute call with US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; Kushner said the focus was on ending the war and on a security architecture that would prevent it from restarting. (Full analysis: Security Watch, 5 November 08:00.)

Monitoring: open investigations

• Latvia. No wreckage found in Balvi district; attribution of both drones remains preliminary.
• Poland. The security operation near the Kaliningrad border continues until at least 8 November.
• Refrigeration cyberattacks. No common attack vector or attribution established.
• Russian claims of strikes on Ukrainian logistics. Russia's Defence Ministry claimed overnight strikes on transport targets. 🟡 No independently verified impact.
• Black Sea, Zaporizhzhia NPP. No new incidents or IAEA findings.

Conclusion

The week before Abu Dhabi shows both sides heading into talks without easing pressure. Ukraine is hitting refineries ever closer to Moscow; Europe is looking for money for another year of war; and one of its major powers can barely find the political will for its next package. On 10 November, Abu Dhabi will start talking about peace — and on the same day, a parliamentary committee in Rome will hear what Italy can offer Ukraine's air defence.

Negotiations do not stop a war. They only reveal who arrived at them stronger.

Baltic Security Monitor (osint-baltic.com) — an analytical publication on security across NATO's north-eastern flank.
Prepared from open-source monitoring; the verification status of each fact is marked in the text.