Brussels before Abu Dhabi: Europe looks for a seat, Washington shifts the balance

Baltic Security Monitor | Security Watch · 5 November 2026, 08:00 EET

A week before three-way talks in Abu Dhabi, two things have changed. Democrats have won control of both chambers of the US Congress, and in Brussels Ukraine, the United States, France, Germany, Britain, the EU and NATO are spending two days on security guarantees, reconstruction and the cost of the war in 2027. No MATERIAL development was recorded on NATO's north-eastern flank in this cycle, but the political backdrop to the talks has moved noticeably.

Washington: Congress changes hands

Democrats won majorities in both chambers in the 3 November elections. According to Al Jazeera's tally on 4 November, they had at least 228 House seats and were leading in 34 more, with Republicans projected to fall short of 180. In the Senate, Democrats had already won 54 seats against the 51 needed for control. The new Congress convenes in January 2027. Trump told Fox News that the Democrats "did a good job."

Speaking to ZDF, President Zelenskyy said he hoped the new balance of power in Washington would bring Ukraine more support, while also thanking Republicans. Democrats, he said, "speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine," and stronger US help would have an impact on Putin.

BSM analysis

Control of Congress does not change White House foreign policy overnight, but it does change its limits. Congress holds the budget, sanctions legislation and oversight of the executive. In recent weeks the administration has made moves that favour Moscow: a temporary licence for Russian diesel transactions, sanctions easing, pressure on Kyiv over refinery strikes. From January, each such step will have to pass a Congress run by the opposition.

For the Baltic states this matters in two ways. It creates a counterweight if Abu Dhabi turns to a deal at Europe's expense. And the predictability of the American presence on the flank no longer rests on the White House alone. Until January, though, the old Congress sits — and the 10–11 November talks fall squarely in that transition.

Brussels: guarantees, reconstruction and the 2027 bill

On 4 November the European Commission brought delegations from Ukraine, the United States, France, Germany and Britain to Brussels, along with NATO and the World Bank. Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho said the meeting builds on earlier talks in Miami and comes ahead of the three-way round in Abu Dhabi.

Rustem Umerov, a member of Ukraine's negotiating team, described two meetings on the first day:

• A Prosperity Plan for Ukraine. A document on post-war reconstruction, investment and growth, being worked on with the World Bank and BlackRock. The sides agreed next steps and deadlines; details have not been released.
• Financing for 2027. Ukraine presented its estimate of what the war will cost next year, the deficit to be closed and possible funding sources. No figures have been published.

Talks continue on 5 November, this time on security guarantees and a new post-war European security architecture. Umerov described security, reconstruction and the economy as parts of a single plan, arguing that Europe's long-term security depends on Ukraine's.

BSM analysis

In its Security Watch of 3 November, BSM noted that, judging by the announced format, no European capitals would be at the table in Abu Dhabi. Brussels is a partial answer: France, Germany and Britain, together with the EU and NATO, are shaping a position before the three-way round rather than after it. "Before" is the key word. The US, Russia and Ukraine will be the ones in the room in Abu Dhabi, so Europe's influence depends on how far the guarantee parameters agreed in Brussels become Kyiv's and Washington's position.

The financial track deserves attention too. Ukraine has put a 2027 war budget in front of its partners, which means Brussels is planning not only for peace but for another year of war. 🟡 Without published figures, the size of the gap cannot be assessed.

Background: Patriots, refineries and a "pause" that wasn't

• Patriot. On 30 October the US approved the sale of 500 PAC-3 MSE interceptors to Ukraine for $2.1 billion. Canada, Germany and Norway will contribute, and Ukraine will cover its share from an EU loan. 🟡 Two sources told Reuters deliveries were unlikely before the early 2030s.
• Refinery strikes. On 29 October the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine had informally paused strikes on Russian refineries under US pressure until after the US elections. Kyiv denied it, and the strikes continued: Novokuybyshevsk on 30 October, Kstovo on 1 November, Yaroslavl on 3 November. On 1 November Zelenskyy told Fox News he would halt refinery strikes for a month in exchange for a month of Patriot deliveries. (Full analysis of the Yaroslavl strike: Material Update, 3 November 08:00.)

Monitoring: open investigations

• Latvia. No wreckage found in Balvi district as of the morning of 5 November; attribution of both drones remains preliminary. (Material Update, 3 November 20:00.)
• Poland. The security operation near the Kaliningrad border continues until at least 8 November; no verified hostile activity established.
• Refrigeration cyberattacks. AP reports that French investigators are examining a supplier-side component; the three plasma-storage sites lost no blood products. No attribution.
• Black Sea, Zaporizhzhia NPP. No new incidents or IAEA findings.

Conclusion

Next week's calendar is crowded: Exercise Koalicja in Poland from 9 November, Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. But the backdrop has changed in two days. Europe is no longer waiting for the outcome of the talks; it is trying to set their terms in Brussels. Washington now has a Congress that, from January, can put limits on concessions to Moscow. Both shifts favour the north-eastern flank, and neither guarantees an outcome.

Negotiations are won not by whoever sits at the table, but by whoever agreed on terms before anyone sat down.

Baltic Security Monitor (osint-baltic.com) — an analytical publication on security across NATO's north-eastern flank.
Prepared from open-source monitoring; the verification status of each fact is marked in the text.