Rehearsing a peace that hasn't come: Koalicja in Poland and talks in Abu Dhabi

Baltic Security Monitor | Security Watch · 3 November 2026, 14:00 EET

Within a week, European forces will start rehearsing a post-war deployment to Ukraine, and the United States, Russia and Ukraine will meet in Abu Dhabi. Both steps prepare for the day after the war. Neither means that day has arrived: the exercise is only scheduled and the talks only announced. No new verified change to the security picture on NATO's north-eastern flank was established in this cycle.

Koalicja: the first exercise of the Multinational Force for Ukraine

Britain's Ministry of Defence has announced Exercise Koalicja — Polish for "coalition" — in south-eastern Poland from 9 to 22 November. Some 2,800 troops from 11 countries will take part. France sends the largest contingent, about 1,100, and Britain about 300. Belgium, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and Turkey are also involved.

It is the first exercise of the Multinational Force for Ukraine, set up in 2025 under the roughly 35-nation Coalition of the Willing. Troops will test command systems, the movement of personnel and equipment, and how the different armies work together. The force would deploy only once hostilities have ended and at the request of Ukraine's government. It is not designed for peacekeeping or ceasefire monitoring. It sits outside NATO, and US involvement is limited, according to AFP. British Defence Secretary Wes Streeting framed it as a real force rather than a hypothetical plan, ready to help Ukraine once the fighting stops.

BSM analysis

For the Baltic states the exercise matters in two ways. Estonia and Lithuania are sending troops, which turns post-war guarantees for Ukraine from a talking point into a practical commitment. And a force operating outside NATO, with little visible American role, tests whether Europe can move and sustain a contingent on the continent's eastern edge on its own. The logistics routes through Poland are the same ones the defence of the north-eastern flank would rely on in a crisis. Still, 2,800 troops on manoeuvres are a rehearsal, not a deployment, and the condition is explicit: the war has to end first.

Abu Dhabi: three-way talks on 10–11 November

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia will hold three-way talks with the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky will lead Moscow's delegation. US envoy Steve Witkoff said the agenda covers post-war security arrangements and de-escalation. The last US-mediated talks took place in February, before the United States and Israel went to war with Iran.

The announcement came against the backdrop of a massive overnight barrage: according to President Zelenskyy, Russia launched 289 attack drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles into 3 November. Poland scrambled air-defence assets the same night.

BSM analysis

The timing is telling. A European coalition rehearses security guarantees from 9 November, while talks on those very "post-war security arrangements" open on the 10th — and, judging by the announced format, without European capitals at the table. For the Baltic states the real question is not whether talks happen, but whose guarantees they will be negotiating. No ceasefire or binding commitment has been signed, so the status remains WATCH.

Monitoring: open investigations

• Latvia, 2 November. European Pravda, citing the National Armed Forces, reports that the alert covered Balvi and Ludza municipalities and that Latvia deployed its own interceptor drones alongside NATO fighters. The object came down in the Balvi area and a ground search is under way. 🟡 Recovery of debris, airframe type and origin are not officially confirmed. Search results and identification are the key data still to come. (Full analysis: Material Update, 3 November 08:00.)
• Latvia, 1 November (BLAZE). No new information; the object remains unidentified.
• Yaroslavl refinery. No independent data on any impact on throughput; operating status unknown.
• Black Sea. A Reuters analysis published on 3 November reviews attacks on merchant ships off Romania and Bulgaria, including the sinking of Contship Jet, and NATO's previously announced surveillance reinforcement. It does not establish a new attack or a completed deployment.
• Russian claim of strikes on two cargo ships. Moscow says the vessels carried military cargo. 🟡 Reuters could not verify this independently.
• Supermarket refrigeration cyberattacks (Estonia, Sweden, Finland, Ireland and others). No new verified indicators or attribution.
• Patriot / PURL. Approval in place; no contract or delivery confirmed.
• Zaporizhzhia NPP. No new IAEA findings.

Conclusion

While hundreds of drones and missiles still fly over Ukraine, November's political calendar is already being written for peace: an exercise in Poland from the 9th, talks in Abu Dhabi from the 10th. The two tracks run in parallel but do not meet. Europe is preparing a force to back guarantees that others will negotiate without it. For the north-eastern flank, that is the main risk of the coming weeks — ending up as the enforcer of a deal it did not write.

Guarantees rehearsed by one party and negotiated by another remain a rehearsal.

Baltic Security Monitor (osint-baltic.com) — an analytical publication on security across NATO's north-eastern flank.
Prepared from open-source monitoring; the verification status of each fact is marked in the text.