Trump Waives New Russia Sanctions Under the Graham Act Before They Take Effect: What the Order Actually Changes
Baltic Security Monitor | Material OSINT Update Snapshot: 17 October 2026, 08:00 (Europe/Tallinn)
On 16 October Trump signed an order under which tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and 100% on the largest buyers of Russian energy did not take effect on 18 October. They are written into the order, but their application is suspended. The order does not cancel existing US sanctions. The White House has given no detailed public explanation, and the motives the press names are the outlets' account, not an administration statement.
1. What is confirmed
The order. The text of "Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026" is published on the White House website, dated 16 October. Trump signed the act on 18 September.
What it provides. Section 2 adds a 500% duty on goods from Russia and a 100% duty on countries among the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas that knowingly make new purchases from 18 October, and on the five largest facilitators of oil-sanctions evasion.
What is suspended. Section 4 waives these duties and a range of the act's sanctions provisions. There is no end date: the waiver stays in effect until the President, or the Secretary of State with Treasury and the Trade Representative, decides further action is appropriate. The order also states that it does not affect sanctions under the separate Russia national-emergency order.
Certification. Section 1 records that the President submitted to Congress a certification that the waiver "at this time" is in the national interest. The report itself is not on the page.
Why, per the press. Bloomberg (reprinted) reports that the act's provisions complicated efforts to lower diesel prices, which are near record highs weeks before the 3 November elections, and that the waiver avoids a clash with China, India and Turkey. Last week Trump announced a plan to work with Putin to release Russian diesel into global markets. A bipartisan group of senators wrote demanding he rescind the Putin deal and enforce the act. That is the outlet's account and the senators' reaction, not a White House statement.
2. Confirmed versus outstanding
| Claim | Status |
|---|---|
| The order was signed on 16 October and published | ✅ White House (order text) |
| The 500% and 100% duties do not take effect automatically on 18 October | ✅ Section 4 of the order |
| Existing sanctions under the separate order are not repealed | ✅ Section 4(b) |
| A national-interest certification was submitted to Congress | ✅ Section 1 of the order (the report itself is unpublished) |
| AP and the FT independently reported the decision (per the digest) | 🟡 AP is blocked for me; I read Bloomberg (via Business Standard) and found NBC, CNN and The Hill by headline |
| The reason: diesel prices and the Putin deal | 🟡 Outlets' account; the White House has not published a detailed rationale |
| Effect on Russian energy revenue and war financing | 🟡 Unknown |
| Whether the administration will apply the suspended measures later | 🟡 Unknown |
3. BSM analysis
This is deferral, not repeal. The duties are written into the order, but Section 4 removes them with no end date. The instrument stays in the administration's hands, which is why predicting the effect is premature.
An accuracy trap for headlines. "Trump lifts sanctions on Russia" is wrong. It concerns new measures under one law, not the whole regime.
Internal tension in the text. Section 2 imposes duties; Section 4(a) waives duties under the act "or this order." The page does not explain how the two fit. Bloomberg describes it as "formally imposes but suspends." The legal reading needs checking.
For Europe and the Baltic states. The less US pressure, the larger the role of EU sanctions, energy-security measures and defence-industrial investment. This cycle shows no concrete EU decision in response.
WATCH: per the digest, partly verified by me
| Story | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Russia detained a Swedish citizen in Pskov Oblast; the FSB says he served in a Ukrainian drone unit and planned sabotage | 🟡 | Reuters, 15 October: this is the FSB's account; identity, service and charges are not verified, and the only "confession" is a video. Sweden's Foreign Ministry is aware of the reports and not currently involved |
| Putin: a "security zone" along the border, 660 km, about 70% under Russian control | 🟡 | Putin's words confirmed; Peskov's figures have no independent check |
| Bulgaria's request to NATO | 🟡 | Ambassadors discuss it next week; no decision (see the 16 October piece) |
| Patriot, Starlink restrictions | 🟡 | No new verified change per the digest |
I did not check the rest of the digest's WATCH queue.
Conclusion
Confirmed: a signed order that stops the new duties and sanctions from taking effect on 18 October, without repealing existing sanctions. Not confirmed: official reasons, effect on Russian revenue, later use of the suspended measures.
Next checks: a White House explanation; Congress's reaction, including the bipartisan senators' letter; the EU's position on its own sanctions; whether the measures remain suspended.
Baltic Security Monitor (osint-baltic.com) — an analytical outlet on security on NATO's north-eastern flank. All OSINT assessments are prepared by an automated open-source monitoring system.
